politics- 2010

This New Year starts another year of political scrambling. This is also the year that marks the mid-terms, when in November our whole congress will face the rather decisive midterm elections. In (super) layman terms the midterm elections is a time when everyone in congress is fired and have to go through a election process in order to maintain their spot in congress (like the presidential elections).
The reason why this year’s midterm hold much weigh is because of the sheer volume of our president’s agenda (now I would try to make this essay as objective as possible to avoid discussions of the legitimacy of either side of our politics) which includes a massive healthcare overhaul, a massive cap and trade legislation, a massive immigration legislation, a massive job stimulus, a massive financial regulation legislation, and (I think soon) a massive thing to do with terrorism legislation. This agenda will obviously not be finished before November and many people say that a democratic majority in congress (as what we have now) is crucial to pushing this agenda through. Seeing that Obama’s bipartisan dream was obviously, well, a dream (actually more like a day dream, because the senate is nowhere near bipartisan as proven by the healthcare votes), the party with the more senator would obviously be at an advantage. But since 60-40 is the magic number, really, the democrats could not afford anything below their current standing at 58. If the democrats do not maintain their majority, Obama would now have to not only bargain with more moderates, but he also have to bargain with his polar opposite: the republicans.
While it is a very crucial time for the democrats, it does not seem like they are in a good shape and as of all things, there are lots of reasons for that. First, three prominent senate democrats are announcing their retirements: Christopher Dodd, Byron Dorgan, and Bill Ritter. The reason why this has a fairly big impact on the democrats is that all of these senators are expected to win their reelection (if they were to run for a reelection); their retirement means that their spots are now open for the taking for perhaps (gasp) a republican. Second, our young president proved to be a little too advantageous with his stimulus, Nobel Peace Prize, toxic assets, green jobs, bailout, “socialist movements”, “racism”, etc and all of that adventure lead him from having one of the highest approval ratings to having one of the lowest (at 50%). Third, the Healthcare overhaul. Now this debate has dragged along for too long. Not only is it boring you and me, but it is also boring the public. This policy further divided the public on who they support which further add on to the uncertainty of the midterm outcomes. Health presented another obstacle for the democrat after Obama announced that he is going to stop public conferences about the bill after promising about 5 times that he will keep healthcare conferences transparent. This obviously spurred much backlash from both the republican and more importantly the public, which is what the democrats are, rely on to maintain their majority in congress.
However you see it, the democrats need to win this year in order to fulfill their goals. Though the trends are not in their favor, there are some little points for them to be optimistic about. Obama is shifting his focus to a new job stimulus regulation which is exactly what the public is looking for. The retiring democrats are succeeded by very able successors. The 2010 midterm election is a big event that would determine the outcome of the rest of Obama’s presidency. Will he be a president of hope and change or would our politics amount to a do nothing congress such as the one during the Bush presidency?